So Donald Trump wants to take over Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal. Now the people who live in these places aren’t too keen on this (polling in Canada has at best 10% of Canadians wanting to be part of the US) so what is Trump going to do? Well he’s attempting to drive Canada’s economy into the ground in the hopes that Canadians will beg to join the US. The reality is that so far all Trump has managed to do is basically unite Canadians against the US. There’s limits to how much Trump can do this to Canada as well, given how closely integrated the two countries’ economies are. In the current tariff war the US is feeling the pain more than Canada is, combined with poling that show that most Americans also don’t want Canada to become part of the US, makes it doubtful that this line of attack can be sustained for very long by Trump.He's threatening both Panama and Greenland with invasion. He’s stated that he’s going to send in troops to take over both the canal and Greenland if they don’t accede to his wishes. It remains to be seen if he has the intestinal fortitude to do so or even if the US military will obey such an order, but time will tell.
So how do I think this will play out? I think that at some point in the next few months Trump will sign an executive order (or orders) annexing Canada, Greenland and/or the Panama Canal. Now such an order would be meaningless outside of the US so it is likely to be ignored by the other parties (with the possible exception of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith who much of the time seems to be channeling Vikun Quisling). This will of course drive Trump even further off the deep end and will likely attempt to send in the US military or other US law enforcement agencies to enforce US law in what Trump sees as the new territory of the US.
How’s that going to play out? Well many European states have provided guarantees of miliary support to Denmark with respect to Greenland which means US forces would then likely have to battle European forces in Greenland. It again remains to be seen if US forces would even obey such an order.
Panama? Well that would depend on how other Latin American states react, but much of the world depends on the canal and to have it taken over by the US by force would likely cause repercussions against the US, likely in the form of sanctions. How long the US public would want to suffer under that is how long this piece of military adventure would last.
Finally Canada. With the exception of Alberta’s Danielle Smith who’s anti-Canada stance is well documented, Canadian leadership would be opposed to any action like this. If the US were to attempt to send it’s law enforcement personnel or even military personnel there would likely be a response. It is most likely that Canada and Canadians would begin an asymmetrical war against an American invader. Canada’s territory is excellent for this. Lots of forests for hiding, lots of rivers for interdiction. Add to it a long, nigh impossible to defend border and not only would US invaders have a hard time of it, but much damage would be caused to targets in the US proper. Canadians for the most part look and sound like Americans so it would be hard to spot Canadian guerillas moving around the US. It may take time but the US doesn’t have a good record against countries that do this. It would be even worse with American cities and infrastructure feeling the brunt of hit and run attacks. Though a nice country, ask the Germans about how Canadians fight when they have to.
So we’ll see how things go. Trump, like Putin, thinks he’s a master strategist and negotiator. In reality his just a bully. He’s just as likely to fold like a cheap suit than be successful in any of what he’s trying to do against other countries. The fact that he is flabbergasted that with the exception of Danielle Smith, Canada has basically told him to get bent and is fighting back on his trade war is evidence of this. We shall see what happens.