So now what?

With the prorogation of parliament, we now have a time of relative quiet in Canadian politics. With Harper's "I had to destroy democracy to save it" move of shutting down parliament, it remains to be seen if the coalition will be able to survive the recess. That being said, this bit of breathing room has not only bought Harper another month in office, it has also allowed the opposition to get some of their ducks in line. In that sense, that act of desperation on the part of Harper may still work out against him. The primary thing about the prorogation that works against Harper and his party is that it has given the Liberals time to anoint a new leader. I suspect that Harper may have believed that the Liberals would not be able to get their act together in the month away from the house and that a long and divisive leadership contest would ensue. Well if that was Harper's wish, he didn't get it. Barely a week after prorogation, three Liberals, showing far more class and integrity than Harper ever has, put aside their personal aspirations and put party ahead of self. In short order Stephane Dion stepped down, and both Dominic LeBlanc and Bob Rae ducked out of the leadership race. This has allowed for a rapid change of leadership from Dion to Michael Ignatieff. This means that when parliament resumes next month, the Liberals will have a new, stronger leader who has had a month to ease into the job. It also end the uncertainty that would have existed had Dion stayed on as leader.

Though it is uncertain if the coalition will survive the leadership change as Ignatieff has given off mixed signals about how he feels about joining with the NDP to form a government. The selection of Ignatieff does stabilize the coalition, should it form. Now there is no uncertainty as to Liberal leadership and hence who'd be PM should the coalition be successful. This will take some of the wind out of the Tory sails in that they will have less success in selling a lack of leadership on the part of Ignatieff, though that won't stop them from trying.

As for the Tories, they need to do some naval gazing. They won't of course, as self reflection isn't a trait to be found in the majority of the zombie automatons that make up the Tory faithful, but they need to do it. Basically, their vaunted Maximum Leader was unable to gain a majority with his second kick at the can. This despite two years of virtually constant campaigning by the Conservatives, spending millions of not only party but public money in attack ads verging on the libellous on the opposition parties and leaders. This was followed by a snap election in violation of their own fixed election date law to take advantage of firming poll numbers and to try to avoid the collapse of the Canadian economy. Add to this fighting an election against a weak Liberal leader. With everything in his favour Harper was STILL unable to gain a parliamentary majority. Follow this by a self serving attempt to destroy the opposition parties the result of which nearly resulted in the Tories losing power (and it still may) and then a slash and burn response to the very parliamentarians he needs the support of to stay in government. The Conservatives need to look at finding someone who will be more acceptable not just to the opposition, but more acceptable to the 62% of people who voted against them.

Of course this won't happen. The average Tory likes strong authoritarian leadership and is willing to give up pretty much anything to get it. Like Harper, the average Tory supporter just can't see that the reason that they're not in a majority government situation isn't the voter, but the Tories themselves. If the Tories can't figure this out, they are, in the long term, doomed. Harper's bullying has almost cost them government and with Dion out of the picture, there may not be enough time to put out an effective smear campaign against Ignatieff which means they may not be able to retain government come next election. This is especially true if Harper's budget does nothing to directly help the average Canadian. Tax cuts announced two years ago isn't going to cut it for people who have no income, and the economy is going to get worse before it gets better and at this point, the Tories will take the blame. Further inaction and bullying by Harper and his ministers will only serve to further alienate the voter.

This leaves where will things go come January. There are a few possibilities, depending on what Harper does in the meantime and how annoyed the opposition is with him come the end of January. Harper may have learned a lesson over the whole economic update fiasco and actually reach out to the opposition with the budget. Now if he does this, don't think he's suddenly become a pragmatist, just that he's going to do anything to stay in power. No matter his reasoning, if Harper does this there's a good chance the opposition will support the budget and Harper gets to stay in 24 Sussex for a few months more. Of course he could reach out to the opposition and still get clobbered over the budget because he's caused so much bad blood between him and the opposition over the economic update, and his past behaviour, that the opposition is unwilling to allow his government to continue under any circumstance.

Another, and I think more likely possibility is that Harper will try to destroy the opposition again, counting on the Governor General to dissolve parliament if he were to lose the confidence of the house and not call on the opposition to form a coalition government or to prorogue parliament again should the likelihood of a failed confidence motion rear its head again. Harper is too much the ideologue to let reality and pragmatism get in the way of his desire to create a conservative dictatorship. Also, Harper and the Tories' solution to the economic crisis is to ignore it, let the vaunted market fix things. In the mind of Harper and his supporters, the longer they can delay any action, the better. Any delay that prorogation and a possible election would create is only a good thing in their minds. By stalling as much as possible, the do nothing lack of policy the Harper Tories want is what they are getting.

All that I can say for certain is that the Tory spin machine, already in overdrive, will start to spin even faster, spewing lies at a furious pace to cement in the minds of Canadians that parliamentary democracy works like the US republican model. Also expect that minutes after Ignatieff is confirmed as Liberal leader that the smear campaign against him will ramp out full force. Which means the Liberals have to be thinking about their counter campaign right now so they can put it out there coincident to the Tory slander, if not before. Though there's a bit of a lull, things will probably get exciting again soon.