Tory Election Fever!

Stephen Harper wants an election. He wants it bad. He and his party are so into election mode they've probably hired the caterers for the victory party. All the signs are there. The Tories are spending money like it's going out of style. A huge negative ad campaign against the Liberals, a new fully equipped and staffed 17000 square foot "war room" in Ottawa, and budget largess that would make any previous government blush in shame. There's no denying it, the Tories are in campaign mode right now. Unfortunately for Harper and the Conservatives, they're the only ones in the country who really want an election. Why Harper wants an election is a little bit of a mystery. After all, his polling numbers don't give him a majority government and why risk the wrath of the voters if total victory is uncertain. In point of fact, the Tories are stalled at their 2006 election night numbers and have yet to gain any traction, despite over a year as government. They only possibly advantage for the Tories going to the polls now is that the Liberals are still rebuilding after their leadership race, though the Grits aren't as disorganized as the Tories apparently perceive them to be. Also given that the Canadian people aren't in the mood for another election at this time and it's not likely to be in the Conservatives' favour to go to the polls right away.

Which is really Harper's problem. How to force an election and blame it on the Liberals. After all, as Prime Minister, Harper can simply walk across the street from 24 Sussex to Rideau Hall and have parliament dissolved and off to the polls we go. Alas, with the Canadian public not wanting another election just yet, this would likely be disastrous to the Tories. So the Harper government has to engineer a confidence bill that will cause all three opposition parties to vote against it, since if any one opposition party votes for a bill, it will pass. I suspect the Harper government was hoping the budget would be the bill and they could be off to the hustings, chequebook in hand, buying their way to a majority. The opposition didn't play ball though and now the Harper conservatives have to tread lightly. If they pick the wrong bill to be defeated on, say the Clean Air Act, Stephen Harper could be moving back to Stornoway. Herein lies a further difficulty, the only way to ensure a government defeat in the House is to put forward a bill so odious that all three opposition parties can't in good conscience support it. The danger here is such a bill would also likely be odious to the Canadian voter and not do the Tories any favours there either.

The opposition has a marvelous opportunity here. The Conservative party is spending money at an unsustainable rate, the rent on their war room alone is likely to be $250000 a year. This, amongst other things, makes time the enemy of Harper and his party and the friend of the opposition. If the opposition can drag out the current parliament to the end of the year, the Tories will have for the most part, played all their cards, and spent most of their cash, before the election even gets called. The longer the Tories have to wait for an election, the less effective their attack ads will become as people become numb to them as people are beginning to become numb to the Tories blaming the Liberals for everything. The longer the Tories have to wait for an election the more money they'll have to spend, both in terms of tax dollars as well as party funds, both of which will annoy party supporters. The longer the Tories have to wait, the more likely something scandalous will come to light about them. Finally, the longer the Tories have to wait for an election, the more people are going to realized that the Conservatives have no overt policy. This makes it ripe for the opposition to put forward the "hidden agenda" argument, since the Tories, while in government, didn't really do anything this means they must be waiting for a majority so that they can put forward their "real" agenda.

The fact that time is Harper's enemy and the oppositions' friend is likely the real reason that he wants a quick trip to the polls. Stephen Harper sees his poll numbers stalled, which means the likely direction the numbers will go isn't up and sees that as time goes on, more and more cracks will develop in the Conservative armour. He also sees that the more time passes, the less people will remember the sponsorship scandal and more of his support will bleed off to the Liberals. He also knows that as time passes and he can't put forward a truly neo-conservative agenda, his core support will start to evaporate too. Harper is really between a rock and a hard place.

So Harper has to decide which will be less damaging to him and his party, a snap election or waiting for the people to be ready for another election. Through his and his party's actions it would appear that they are thinking a snap election would be less damaging. They just have to figure out a way to make it seem like it wasn't their idea.